Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Kozak 48.8% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 58.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 60.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 60.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Lowry
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Kozak
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
2
Lowry
Kozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
48.3% (431)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
62.5% (8)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
48.9% (45)
-4.1%
On power play, Kozak has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Lowry
Kozak
Home
53.5% (5,920)
47.6% (229)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Lowry
Kozak
P1
51.6%
54.4%
P2
51.7%
45.7%
P3
51.5%
45.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |