Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 89.7%
Defensive zone
Johnston 74.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 79.5%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 79.5%
20.5%
79.5%
Lowry
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Lowry
Johnston
Last 5: Lowry 0-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Lowry
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Lowry
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Lowry
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
47.3% (666)
+8.4%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
50.7% (69)
+35.0%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
51.4% (35)
-12.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johnston
Home
54.3% (429)
47.5% (364)
Away
53.5% (385)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Lowry
Johnston
P1
53.1%
49.4%
P2
55.2%
46.9%
P3
54.4%
47.1%
OT
40.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
57.1%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:52 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |