Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kempe wins 41.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 40.9% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 62.6%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 90.2%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 81.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 79.2%
20.8%
79.2%
Kempe
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kempe
Bjugstad
Last 8: Kempe 5-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Kempe
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
1
Kempe
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,882)
48.6% (6,646)
-8.4%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
55.2% (829)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
44.3% (614)
-1.7%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Kempe is 41.8% vs right-shot opponents (791).
Kempe shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Home / Away
Kempe
Bjugstad
Home
42.4% (1,046)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
Kempe
Bjugstad
P1
39.4%
48.9%
P2
40.1%
49.1%
P3
42.2%
48.5%
OT
37.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
37.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 12:47 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 01:34 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |