Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.6% vs McLeod 47.4% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 74.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 75.3%
Neutral zone
Kempe 51.0%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Kempe
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kempe
McLeod
Last 5: Kempe 2-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Kempe
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (103)
49.0% (827)
-11.1%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
44.0% (91)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
43.0% (272)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Kempe
McLeod
Home
35.8% (67)
48.5% (619)
Away
35.5% (76)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Kempe
McLeod
P1
36.5%
52.7%
P2
36.7%
43.9%
P3
31.4%
45.8%
OT
42.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
40.0%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.7%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |