Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +22.4% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-22.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Kempe
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kempe
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kempe
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (103)
58.7% (858)
-20.8%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
55.8% (285)
-25.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
62.9% (35)
-37.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +37.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Kempe
Hertl
Home
35.8% (67)
60.1% (599)
Away
35.5% (76)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Kempe
Hertl
P1
36.5%
52.4%
P2
36.7%
63.9%
P3
31.4%
58.5%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |