Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Killorn wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Killorn 40.0% vs Marner 42.7% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Killorn 58.2%
Defensive zone
Marner 61.4%
Neutral zone
Killorn 51.2%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Killorn
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Killorn
Marner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Killorn
Marner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Killorn
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
38.3% (483)
41.7% (496)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.6% (87)
55.6% (18)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
25.3% (75)
35.4% (65)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Marner has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Killorn is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Killorn shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Killorn
Marner
Home
38.9% (303)
38.0% (321)
Away
38.0% (342)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Killorn
Marner
P1
35.1%
38.7%
P2
42.6%
41.5%
P3
37.6%
45.5%
OT
27.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Killorn
28.0%▼
33.0%
38.4%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Alex Killorn |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |