Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Laferriere on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Nelson 50.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.9%
22.1%
77.9%
Laferriere
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Laferriere
Nelson
Last 6: Laferriere 4-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Laferriere
2
1
Laferriere
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Laferriere
1
0
Laferriere
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Laferriere
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (325)
50.9% (928)
-9.1%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
59.8% (179)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (72)
43.4% (205)
-5.9%
On even strength, Nelson has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Laferriere is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Laferriere shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Nelson
Home
40.2% (204)
52.9% (654)
Away
42.9% (210)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Laferriere
Nelson
P1
32.5%
48.4%
P2
39.7%
54.3%
P3
48.9%
50.5%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
40.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
38.0%▼
40.0%
41.5%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Alex Laferriere |