Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 37.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 47.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 51.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.6%
Neutral zone
Tuch 55.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Tuch
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Tuch
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (54)
55.7% (856)
-9.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
57.5% (233)
-24.2%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
50.0% (144)
-22.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tuch is 37.2% vs left-shot opponents (43).
Tuch shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Tuch
O'Reilly
Home
48.5% (33)
55.5% (616)
Away
37.1% (35)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Tuch
O'Reilly
P1
33.3%
58.1%
P2
46.2%
54.9%
P3
52.9%
53.9%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |