Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Duchene 51.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.5%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 53.0%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 52.2%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Turcotte
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Turcotte
Duchene
Last 5: Turcotte 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Turcotte
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
0
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
51.1% (366)
+2.5%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
61.5% (65)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
16.7% (6)
+83.3%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Duchene
Home
53.2% (263)
51.7% (201)
Away
55.0% (209)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Turcotte
Duchene
P1
57.2%
49.0%
P2
59.6%
57.1%
P3
44.1%
49.2%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:46 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |