Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Kelly 41.4% (+17.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 65.1%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 52.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 51.8%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Turcotte
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Turcotte
Kelly
Last 7: Turcotte 3-4 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Turcotte
Kelly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
2
Turcotte
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
36.5% (159)
+17.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
0.0% (1)
+70.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
38.5% (13)
+61.5%
On power play, Turcotte has a +70.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Kelly is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Kelly
Home
53.2% (263)
35.4% (79)
Away
55.0% (209)
37.2% (94)
By Period
Turcotte
Kelly
P1
57.2%
33.8%
P2
59.6%
36.5%
P3
44.1%
39.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |