Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 50.4% vs Hertl 57.5% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.7%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 86.5%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 72.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Kerfoot
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Kerfoot
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Kerfoot
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (115)
58.7% (858)
-4.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
55.8% (285)
+44.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
62.9% (35)
-37.9%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kerfoot is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (74).
Kerfoot shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Hertl
Home
41.7% (60)
60.1% (599)
Away
58.3% (72)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Kerfoot
Hertl
P1
53.8%
52.4%
P2
50.0%
63.9%
P3
47.8%
58.5%
Final 5 min
56.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
50.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |