Alexander Wennberg vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Wennberg wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Wennberg 52.2%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 81.2%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 61.6%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Last 10: Wennberg 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
9
Wennberg
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Wennberg
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wennberg
4
3
Wennberg
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (827)
49.7% (1,038)
-4.0%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
63.7% (157)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
36.3% (179)
34.4% (32)
+1.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Wennberg is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Wennberg shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Home
47.0% (621)
53.1% (618)
Away
44.7% (635)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Wennberg
MacKinnon
P1
44.7%
49.3%
P2
46.1%
53.0%
P3
47.2%
50.7%
OT
36.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
42.0%▼
48.0%
45.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |