Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.9% vs 45.0%). Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Wennberg wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.6%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 67.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.4%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Wennberg
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Wennberg
Cates
Last 9: Wennberg 3-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Wennberg
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
2
1
Wennberg
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Wennberg
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (827)
45.5% (756)
+0.2%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
42.1% (114)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
36.3% (179)
44.7% (47)
-8.4%
On power play, Wennberg has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Wennberg is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (881).
Wennberg shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Cates
Home
47.0% (621)
46.2% (468)
Away
44.7% (635)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Wennberg
Cates
P1
44.7%
46.0%
P2
46.1%
47.5%
P3
47.2%
42.1%
OT
36.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
42.0%▼
48.0%
45.9%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:17 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 05:53 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:38 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Noah Cates |