Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Cogliano wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 48.8% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.0%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 60.4%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 55.6%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Cogliano
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Cogliano
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Cogliano
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (41)
52.3% (560)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
62.5% (16)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cogliano is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (25).
Cogliano shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Pavelski
Home
50.0% (34)
54.2% (360)
Away
44.4% (36)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Cogliano
Pavelski
P1
48.0%
54.5%
P2
51.7%
56.7%
P3
37.5%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
47.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 02:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 02:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |