Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ebbett on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Ebbett wins 42.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ebbett 44.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 64.1%
Defensive zone
Ebbett 50.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 56.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Ebbett
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Ebbett
Pavelski
Last 10: Ebbett 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ebbett
4
2
Ebbett
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Ebbett
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ebbett
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (570)
53.6% (8,791)
-10.8%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
58.2% (2,122)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
50.9% (1,138)
-7.4%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Ebbett is 42.5% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Ebbett shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Ebbett
Pavelski
Home
45.9% (314)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
40.8% (331)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Ebbett
Pavelski
P1
48.7%
53.5%
P2
41.9%
55.2%
P3
39.7%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
38.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ebbett
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2013 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |