Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 48.2% vs Larkin 52.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Shaw leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Shaw
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Shaw
Larkin
Last 10: Shaw 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
3
0
Shaw
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
5
Shaw
Larkin
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
3
2
Shaw
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (3,088)
51.6% (9,056)
-3.7%
Power Play
50.9% (407)
58.6% (2,140)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (57)
50.2% (1,124)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Shaw is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,540).
Shaw shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Shaw
Larkin
Home
50.3% (1,812)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
45.9% (1,740)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Shaw
Larkin
P1
48.5%
52.7%
P2
47.9%
53.1%
P3
48.2%
52.0%
OT
41.9%
58.4%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 04:31 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 1 | 14:42 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 14:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2016 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 26, 2016 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2016 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |