Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Coyle 50.5% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 50.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 75.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 60.4%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Cirelli
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Cirelli
Coyle
Last 10: Cirelli 6-4 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
6
2
Cirelli
Coyle
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Coyle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Coyle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
52.3% (853)
-2.2%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
44.4% (63)
+24.5%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
44.5% (191)
-7.8%
On power play, Cirelli has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Cirelli is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Cirelli shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Coyle
Home
53.0% (470)
49.0% (567)
Away
45.0% (509)
52.0% (540)
By Period
Cirelli
Coyle
P1
50.6%
49.5%
P2
49.2%
49.4%
P3
47.2%
52.6%
OT
30.8%
46.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 01:54 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:00 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:48 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:07 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 01:15 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |