Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Carter 53.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 20-16 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 56.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 63.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 61.2%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Cirelli
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
20
(36 meetings)
16
20
Cirelli
Carter
Last 10: Cirelli 2-8 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
8
5
Cirelli
Carter
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
8
Cirelli
Carter
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
4
7
Cirelli
Carter
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,739)
53.3% (8,728)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.9% (578)
57.3% (1,554)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,209)
46.3% (1,087)
-2.5%
On even strength, Carter has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,874).
Cirelli shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Carter
Home
49.6% (3,838)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Cirelli
Carter
P1
49.9%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
52.8%
P3
49.3%
53.1%
OT
51.1%
56.5%
Final 5 min
50.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 07:34 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 2, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:57 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 06:27 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 05:06 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 04:59 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 3 | 16:18 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 3 | 12:39 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |