Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Tavares 56.8% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.7%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 72.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 55.1%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Cirelli
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Cirelli
Tavares
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Cirelli
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
57.7% (975)
-7.6%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
56.0% (250)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
52.2% (23)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Tavares
Home
53.0% (470)
57.4% (636)
Away
45.0% (509)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Cirelli
Tavares
P1
50.6%
57.5%
P2
49.2%
56.9%
P3
47.2%
57.5%
OT
30.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 05:36 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |