Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Eller 55.0% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 52.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 71.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 56.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Cirelli
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Cirelli
Eller
Last 5: Cirelli 3-2 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Eller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
56.0% (459)
-5.9%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
77.8% (9)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
51.9% (54)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Eller
Home
53.0% (470)
52.6% (215)
Away
45.0% (509)
58.3% (307)
By Period
Cirelli
Eller
P1
50.6%
54.1%
P2
49.2%
57.6%
P3
47.2%
56.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 09:25 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 05:39 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 01:45 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 01:33 | Neutral | Lars Eller |