Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 88.0%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 80.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 81.3%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Cirelli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Cirelli
Sturm
Last 10: Cirelli 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Cirelli
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
5
Cirelli
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
5
Cirelli
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,739)
57.1% (2,719)
-7.4%
Power Play
56.9% (578)
61.3% (62)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,209)
51.0% (498)
-7.2%
On even strength, Sturm has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,652).
Cirelli shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Sturm
Home
49.6% (3,838)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Cirelli
Sturm
P1
49.9%
56.5%
P2
48.7%
54.9%
P3
49.3%
57.4%
OT
51.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:31 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |