Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Tkachuk 55.0% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 81.5%
Defensive zone
Lundell 80.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 58.3%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Lundell
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lundell
Tkachuk
Last 5: Lundell 3-2 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
2
0
Lundell
Tkachuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
2
Lundell
Tkachuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
54.9% (153)
-2.2%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
59.4% (106)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
100.0% (1)
-52.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +52.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Lundell
Tkachuk
Home
51.0% (574)
50.8% (128)
Away
52.6% (546)
62.9% (132)
By Period
Lundell
Tkachuk
P1
52.9%
56.6%
P2
55.8%
58.9%
P3
47.1%
56.2%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:18 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |