Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 50.9%). Look for Lundell on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Nelson 50.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Lundell leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Lundell 51.0%
Defensive zone
Lundell 53.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.9%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Lundell
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Lundell
Nelson
Last 10: Lundell 6-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
4
Lundell
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
6
1
Lundell
Nelson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
2
1
Lundell
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
50.9% (928)
+1.8%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
59.8% (179)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
43.4% (205)
+3.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Lundell
Nelson
Home
51.0% (574)
52.9% (654)
Away
52.6% (546)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Lundell
Nelson
P1
52.9%
48.4%
P2
55.8%
54.3%
P3
47.1%
50.5%
OT
46.2%
41.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:31 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |