Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 52.2% vs Paul 52.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 53.3%
Defensive zone
Lundell 57.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.7%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Lundell
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lundell
Paul
Last 5: Lundell 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Lundell
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (646)
53.1% (277)
+0.5%
Power Play
53.1% (130)
58.7% (46)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (156)
51.7% (29)
-4.3%
On power play, Paul has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lundell is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Lundell shoots left. Paul is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Lundell
Paul
Home
51.6% (498)
52.9% (155)
Away
53.5% (434)
54.3% (197)
By Period
Lundell
Paul
P1
53.7%
55.6%
P2
55.4%
56.7%
P3
48.7%
50.8%
OT
45.5%
20.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
54.0%▼
57.0%
52.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |