Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Paul 53.6% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 57.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 51.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 55.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Lundell
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lundell
Paul
Last 5: Lundell 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Lundell
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
53.7% (354)
-1.0%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
59.0% (61)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
52.9% (34)
-5.6%
On power play, Paul has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Lundell
Paul
Home
51.0% (574)
55.1% (216)
Away
52.6% (546)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Lundell
Paul
P1
52.9%
54.9%
P2
55.8%
54.5%
P3
47.1%
54.3%
OT
46.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |