Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Hertl 57.4% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 83.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Lundell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Lundell
Hertl
Last 9: Lundell 6-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Lundell
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
5
0
Lundell
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
58.5% (845)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
56.2% (281)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
62.9% (35)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Lundell
Hertl
Home
51.0% (574)
60.0% (582)
Away
52.6% (546)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Lundell
Hertl
P1
52.9%
52.1%
P2
55.8%
63.6%
P3
47.1%
58.8%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |