Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Tkachuk 55.0% (+2.8%)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 79.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 86.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 51.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Matthews
Tkachuk
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
54.9% (153)
+4.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
59.4% (106)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
100.0% (1)
-43.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tkachuk
Home
60.0% (520)
50.8% (128)
Away
59.3% (452)
62.9% (132)
By Period
Matthews
Tkachuk
P1
60.2%
56.6%
P2
58.2%
58.9%
P3
60.4%
56.2%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%