Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Coyle 50.5% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 80.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 52.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 63.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Matthews
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Matthews
Coyle
Last 9: Matthews 5-4 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Coyle
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Matthews
Coyle
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Coyle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
52.3% (853)
+7.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
44.4% (63)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
44.5% (191)
+11.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Matthews
Coyle
Home
60.0% (520)
49.0% (567)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.0% (540)
By Period
Matthews
Coyle
P1
60.2%
49.5%
P2
58.2%
49.4%
P3
60.4%
52.6%
OT
70.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:43 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |