Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Giroux shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Giroux 61.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 53.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 67.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Matthews
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Matthews
Giroux
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
3
6
Matthews
Giroux
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
0
1
Matthews
Giroux
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
61.0% (420)
-1.2%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
66.4% (113)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
65.6% (163)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Matthews
Giroux
Home
60.0% (520)
66.6% (350)
Away
59.3% (452)
59.2% (346)
By Period
Matthews
Giroux
P1
60.2%
62.1%
P2
58.2%
64.7%
P3
60.4%
61.6%
OT
70.0%
69.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
61.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
62.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |