Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Cozens 53.2% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 51.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 75.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 64.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Matthews
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Matthews
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.2% (634)
+6.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
57.7% (97)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
33.3% (6)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Cozens is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cozens
Home
60.0% (520)
54.8% (383)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.3% (354)
By Period
Matthews
Cozens
P1
60.2%
56.0%
P2
58.2%
51.2%
P3
60.4%
53.9%
OT
70.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |