Auston Matthews vs Evan Rodrigues
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Rodrigues shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Rodrigues 47.1% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 85.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 82.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Matthews
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Rodrigues
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Rodrigues
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.8% (651)
+12.0%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
47.2% (72)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
36.8% (68)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Matthews
Rodrigues
Home
60.0% (520)
47.9% (445)
Away
59.3% (452)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Matthews
Rodrigues
P1
60.2%
48.3%
P2
58.2%
47.0%
P3
60.4%
44.8%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |