Auston Matthews vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 98.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 77.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 98.2%
98.2%
1.8%
Matthews
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Matthews
Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Gaudreau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
44.9% (414)
+14.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
31.8% (22)
+33.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
38.0% (129)
+18.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gaudreau
Home
60.0% (520)
42.6% (277)
Away
59.3% (452)
43.1% (288)
By Period
Matthews
Gaudreau
P1
60.2%
44.1%
P2
58.2%
44.7%
P3
60.4%
39.5%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |