Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +23.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Hughes 39.5% (+23.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 61.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 72.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 60.4%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Matthews
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Hughes
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Hughes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
1
Matthews
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
36.7% (305)
+23.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
14.3% (7)
+50.6%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
33.3% (6)
+23.0%
On power play, Matthews has a +50.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hughes
Home
60.0% (520)
35.8% (159)
Away
59.3% (452)
36.5% (159)
By Period
Matthews
Hughes
P1
60.2%
42.3%
P2
58.2%
28.2%
P3
60.4%
37.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
27.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |