Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Spezza 52.4% (+3.3%)
Offensive zone
Spezza 61.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 54.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 56.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Matthews
Spezza
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
53.7% (451)
+2.6%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
54.3% (92)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
38.2% (34)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Matthews
Spezza
Home
60.7% (572)
55.0% (282)
Away
52.4% (657)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Matthews
Spezza
P1
60.3%
53.1%
P2
55.6%
53.2%
P3
53.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
56.2%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%