Auston Matthews vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 57.9% vs Kotkaniemi 48.7% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 71.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.4%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 57.3%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (715)
47.7% (195)
+10.9%
Power Play
65.7% (35)
100.0% (2)
-34.3%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (71)
33.3% (3)
+24.4%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Matthews is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Matthews shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Home
60.0% (475)
46.8% (126)
Away
57.2% (346)
50.0% (74)
By Period
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
P1
58.3%
50.0%
P2
58.4%
47.9%
P3
59.4%
45.6%
Final 5 min
56.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
58.8%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |