Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Veleno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Veleno 50.9% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 50.7%
Defensive zone
Veleno 56.1%
Neutral zone
Veleno 53.8%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Matthews
Veleno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Veleno
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Veleno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Veleno
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
52.5% (278)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
37.9% (29)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Veleno shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Veleno is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Matthews
Veleno
Home
60.0% (520)
49.6% (123)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.2% (184)
By Period
Matthews
Veleno
P1
60.2%
54.1%
P2
58.2%
48.8%
P3
60.4%
52.6%
OT
70.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
60.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |