Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Tavares 56.7% (+2.5%)
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 65.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 57.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Matthews
Tavares
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
57.7% (956)
+2.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
55.7% (244)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
52.2% (23)
+4.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tavares
Home
60.0% (520)
57.4% (636)
Away
59.3% (452)
57.1% (587)
By Period
Matthews
Tavares
P1
60.2%
57.1%
P2
58.2%
57.0%
P3
60.4%
57.6%
OT
70.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%