Auston Matthews vs Jonathan Marchessault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +21.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Marchessault shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Marchessault 46.7% (+21.9%)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 61.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.2%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 56.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Matthews
Marchessault
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
35.3% (34)
+24.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
66.7% (3)
-1.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Marchessault is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Home / Away
Matthews
Marchessault
Home
60.0% (520)
40.0% (25)
Away
59.3% (452)
33.3% (12)
By Period
Matthews
Marchessault
P1
60.2%
50.0%
P2
58.2%
30.8%
P3
60.4%
22.2%
OT
70.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
12.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
37.8%