Auston Matthews vs Mikael Backlund
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Backlund 49.8% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 92.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 54.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 80.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Matthews
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Matthews
Backlund
Last 9: Matthews 6-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Backlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Matthews
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.5% (944)
+9.3%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
51.5% (66)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
47.1% (297)
+9.2%
On power play, Matthews has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Matthews
Backlund
Home
60.0% (520)
48.1% (636)
Away
59.3% (452)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Matthews
Backlund
P1
60.2%
45.4%
P2
58.2%
54.1%
P3
60.4%
49.2%
OT
70.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:35 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |