Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Dowd 48.6% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 86.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 95.0%
95.0%
5.0%
Matthews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Matthews
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
51.0% (671)
+8.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
0.0% (2)
+64.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
41.5% (224)
+14.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
60.0% (520)
48.2% (471)
Away
59.3% (452)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
60.2%
48.3%
P2
58.2%
46.8%
P3
60.4%
51.0%
OT
70.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |