Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Paul 53.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 73.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 73.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 78.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 73.2%
26.8%
73.2%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Matthews
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Matthews
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.7% (354)
+6.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
59.0% (61)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
52.9% (34)
+3.4%
On even strength, Matthews has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
60.0% (520)
55.1% (216)
Away
59.3% (452)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
60.2%
54.9%
P2
58.2%
54.5%
P3
60.4%
54.3%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.6%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |