Auston Matthews vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +19.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Buchnevich 43.3% (+19.5%)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 54.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 72.4%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 50.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Matthews
Buchnevich
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
40.5% (190)
+19.3%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
42.9% (14)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
30.0% (10)
+26.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Buchnevich is 37.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Matthews
Buchnevich
Home
60.0% (520)
40.7% (118)
Away
59.3% (452)
39.6% (96)
By Period
Matthews
Buchnevich
P1
60.2%
42.3%
P2
58.2%
37.5%
P3
60.4%
40.3%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%