Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Krebs 45.4% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 87.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 82.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 87.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 84.9%
84.9%
15.1%
Matthews
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Krebs
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Krebs
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Krebs
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
44.4% (403)
+15.4%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
33.3% (6)
+31.6%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
45.0% (20)
+11.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +31.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Krebs is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Matthews
Krebs
Home
60.0% (520)
46.3% (205)
Away
59.3% (452)
42.4% (224)
By Period
Matthews
Krebs
P1
60.2%
47.0%
P2
58.2%
45.4%
P3
60.4%
40.7%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Krebs
48.0%▲
42.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:44 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:18 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |