Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Thomas 51.9% (+7.5%)
Offensive zone
Thomas 59.3%
Defensive zone
Thomas 58.1%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.7%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Matthews
Thomas
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.3% (652)
+9.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
61.5% (104)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
54.2% (120)
+2.1%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thomas
Home
60.0% (520)
52.0% (400)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Matthews
Thomas
P1
60.2%
49.6%
P2
58.2%
55.4%
P3
60.4%
51.0%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%