Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Monahan 52.5% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 56.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 54.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 57.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Matthews
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Matthews
Monahan
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
Monahan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Matthews
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.0% (874)
+6.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
54.7% (161)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
47.5% (101)
+8.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Matthews
Monahan
Home
60.0% (520)
53.8% (558)
Away
59.3% (452)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Matthews
Monahan
P1
60.2%
49.5%
P2
58.2%
54.8%
P3
60.4%
52.8%
OT
70.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
57.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |