Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Aho 50.5% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 62.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 94.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 86.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Matthews
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Matthews
Aho
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Matthews
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.5% (878)
+9.3%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
53.5% (144)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
44.3% (61)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Matthews
Aho
Home
60.0% (520)
53.8% (571)
Away
59.3% (452)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Matthews
Aho
P1
60.2%
49.0%
P2
58.2%
51.7%
P3
60.4%
50.3%
OT
70.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |