Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Crosby 55.1% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 25-22 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 79.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 62.7%
Neutral zone
Crosby 62.2%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Matthews
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
25
(47 meetings)
22
25
Matthews
Crosby
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
4
12
Matthews
Crosby
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
4
Matthews
Crosby
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
11
9
Matthews
Crosby
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.3% (1,025)
+6.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
64.7% (249)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
60.0% (15)
-3.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Crosby is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
Matthews
Crosby
Home
60.0% (520)
56.9% (675)
Away
59.3% (452)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Matthews
Crosby
P1
60.2%
55.1%
P2
58.2%
53.1%
P3
60.4%
58.5%
OT
70.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:07 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:14 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |