Auston Matthews vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Girgensons 46.8% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 67.7%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 57.2%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 55.2%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Matthews
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Girgensons
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
2
Matthews
Girgensons
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
45.1% (164)
+14.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
50.0% (2)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
45.2% (31)
+11.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Girgensons is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Matthews
Girgensons
Home
60.0% (520)
44.6% (92)
Away
59.3% (452)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Matthews
Girgensons
P1
60.2%
44.2%
P2
58.2%
46.0%
P3
60.4%
45.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |