Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Rodrigues 47.1% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 68.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 61.4%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 61.3%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Hayton
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hayton
Rodrigues
Last 6: Hayton 1-5 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Rodrigues
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
2
Hayton
Rodrigues
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
3
Hayton
Rodrigues
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
47.8% (651)
+4.6%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
47.2% (72)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
36.8% (68)
+0.0%
On power play, Hayton has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Hayton
Rodrigues
Home
56.8% (433)
47.9% (445)
Away
47.4% (344)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Hayton
Rodrigues
P1
52.8%
48.3%
P2
50.3%
47.0%
P3
55.4%
44.8%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:29 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |