Barrett Hayton vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Pageau 59.0% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 80.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 63.9%
Neutral zone
Hayton 69.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Hayton
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayton
Pageau
Last 6: Hayton 2-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Hayton
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Hayton
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
59.4% (726)
-7.0%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
69.0% (42)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
59.7% (221)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Hayton
Pageau
Home
56.8% (433)
58.4% (430)
Away
47.4% (344)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Hayton
Pageau
P1
52.8%
55.4%
P2
50.3%
61.8%
P3
55.4%
61.5%
OT
25.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 14, 2025 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:11 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |