Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 67.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 55.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Hayton
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Hayton
Pavelski
Last 10: Hayton 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
3
Hayton
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
52.3% (560)
-1.3%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
57.5% (113)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
62.5% (16)
-17.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Hayton is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (485).
Hayton shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Hayton
Pavelski
Home
54.6% (639)
54.2% (360)
Away
47.2% (591)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Hayton
Pavelski
P1
50.9%
54.5%
P2
52.7%
56.7%
P3
49.9%
50.8%
OT
41.7%
30.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
58.0%▼
62.0%
51.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2023 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 18:43 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |